Hoo-eee!
Last Friday, I was introduced to the Monty Hall Dilemma via Eric Lippert. As I iterated through all of the explanations behind the answer to the dilemma, the easiest technique I found for understanding the situation was to approach it from the point of view of the game show host, not the contestant.
Now the contestant will choose the wrong door initially two thirds of the time. If he or she does, that means that the game show host can logically only open one door. The door that the contestant chose cannot be opened, and neither can the door that holds the prize. Therefore if the contestant chooses the wrong door initially and switches, he or she will always wind up choosing the door with the prize. And if that is true and the first statement is true, the contestant will win two thirds of the time if they always switch doors.
The solution to the dilemma may be to switch doors when offered the chance, but the dilemma actually is more complicated than it initially seems. It has within it multiple parties acting and reacting in turn to a rapidly changing environment following a set system of rules. From my experience, that’s a pretty good baseline for describing a complex software system.
It’s also a good baseline for describing line dancing, but you get my point.
Now the contestant will choose the wrong door initially two thirds of the time. If he or she does, that means that the game show host can logically only open one door. The door that the contestant chose cannot be opened, and neither can the door that holds the prize. Therefore if the contestant chooses the wrong door initially and switches, he or she will always wind up choosing the door with the prize. And if that is true and the first statement is true, the contestant will win two thirds of the time if they always switch doors.
The solution to the dilemma may be to switch doors when offered the chance, but the dilemma actually is more complicated than it initially seems. It has within it multiple parties acting and reacting in turn to a rapidly changing environment following a set system of rules. From my experience, that’s a pretty good baseline for describing a complex software system.
It’s also a good baseline for describing line dancing, but you get my point.
